Longevity Risk

The purpose of this scenario is to illustrate the sensitivity of the Plan’s going concern results to the potential that pension plan members will live longer than expected. For this purpose, we have determined that a plausible adverse scenario would be to assume that future mortality improvements4 will be in line with the average improvements experienced by the Canadian population over the most recent 15-year period available, with uniform improvement rates for all future years but varying by age5 and gender.

The table below summarizes the improvement rates under the plausible adverse scenario compared to those currently assumed under the CPM-B scale and is based on Canadian population experience from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) from 2002 to 2016.

  Males Females
CPM-B Adverse Scenario CPM-B Adverse Scenario
Age 2020 2025 2030+ 2020 2025 2030+
20 1.59% 1.20% 0.80% 1.68% 0.98% 0.89% 0.80% 1.47%
30 1.88% 1.34% 0.80% 1.68% 0.98% 0.89% 0.80% 1.47%
40 1.59% 1.30% 0.80% 1.68% 1.17% 0.98% 0.80% 1.47%
50 1.17% 0.98% 0.80% 1.76% 0.98% 0.89% 0.80% 1.34%
55 1.47% 1.13% 0.80% 1.67% 1.11% 0.96% 0.80% 1.14%
60 1.77% 1.28% 0.80% 1.75% 1.24% 1.02% 0.80% 1.34%
65 2.06% 1.43% 0.80% 2.11% 1.36% 1.08% 0.80% 1.65%
70 2.06% 1.43% 0.80% 2.48% 1.36% 1.08% 0.80% 1.77%
75 2.01% 1.41% 0.80% 2.66% 1.36% 1.08% 0.80% 1.93%
80 1.96% 1.38% 0.80% 2.63% 1.36% 1.08% 0.80% 2.03%