8.0 Current and Future Shelter Needs and Capacity

In 2018 and 2019, on average, 137 shelter beds were occupied in Windsor Essex on the average night: 75 of these are occupied by single adult males, 32 by single adult females, 12 by youth, and 19 by families. Shelter usage has been decreasing amidst the pandemic, particularly in May and the first half of June (data was available to June 15). An average of 143 households were served per night in April, compared to 105 households in May and 88 households in the first half of June. However, while it is difficult to predict the level of shelter usage after the initial phase of the pandemic, the short term downward trend is not anticipated to continue long term.

Looking to the future, there are opportunities to expand diversion so that it is fully implemented across the system. In particular, fully implementing diversion at the Salvation Army and the Downtown Mission. The estimates below conservatively assume that this could reduce demand for shelter for these shelter service providers by 30%, based on diversion programs in other cities. There are also opportunities to provide additional housing support, where housing support is currently “light”, in

particular, the Downtown Mission. The estimates below assume that this could further reduce demand for shelter for this service provider by 15% 31 . With these changes in how services are provided, it is estimated that total average demand per night could be reduced to approximately 121 beds. The distribution by client group is 59 single adult males, 31 single adult females, 11 youth, and 20 families. It should be noted, however, that demand from youth is likely to be higher than 11 if a youth specific shelter were established.

It must also be recognized that emergency shelters are not the community’s only response to housing crises. Other transitional housing serving specific population groups, such as Matthew House, Angela Rose, and Our Lady of Guadalupe, absorb some of the demand that would otherwise go to emergency shelters. Likewise, emergency shelters serve people from specific population groups, such as refugees, when these other services are full.

Current and Future Shelter Need Based on Current Demand and Potential Impact of Additional Supports

 

 

Current Demand

Estimated Demand with Diversion Across System and Additional Housing Support Where it is Light*

Estimated Bed Need With Recommended 80% Avg. Occupancy

Single Adult Male

75

47

59

Single Adult Female

32

25

31

Youth

12

9**

11**

Families

19

16

20

Total

137

97

121