2020–21
THE GENERAL WEATHER REPORT AND FORECAST
FOR REGIONAL FORECASTS, SEE PAGES 206–223.
What’s shaping the weather? We are currently transitioning from Solar Cycle 24 to Solar Cycle 25. Cycle 24 was the smallest in more than 100 years and possibly the smallest since the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800s, while Cycle 25 is expected to also bring very low solar activity. Although low levels of solar activity have historically been associated with cooler temperatures, on average, across Earth, we believe that recent warming trends will dominate in the eastern and northern parts of the United States in the coming winter, with below-normal average temperatures limited to the western portion of the nation.
WINTER will be colder than normal in Maine; the Intermountain, Desert Southwest, and Pacific Southwest re-gions; and eastern Hawaii and near or above normal elsewhere. Precipitation will be below normal from Delmarva into North Carolina; in the southern Appa-lachians, Georgia, and Florida; from the Ohio Valley westward to the Pacific and southward to the Gulf and Mexico; and in western Hawaii and above or near nor-mal elsewhere. Snowfall will be greater than normal in the Northeast, Wiscon-sin, Upper Michigan, the High Plains, and northern Alaska and below normal in most other areas that receive snow.
SPRING will be warmer than normal in the northeastern corner of the country; from Iowa northward through the Up-per Midwest and westward through the southern Intermountain region; and in the western Desert Southwest, Alaska, and western Hawaii and near or cooler than normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above normal in the Northeast, South-east, Florida, and eastern Great Lakes; from the High Plains into Oklahoma and Texas; and in the Desert Southwest and southern California and below or near normal elsewhere. Watch for a tropical storm threat in Florida in mid-May.
SUMMER will be hotter than normal in the Atlantic Corridor and western Great Lakes; from the Upper Midwest south-westward to the southern Intermountain region; and in the Pacific Northwest, coastal California, and Alaska and near or below normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above normal in the Northeast and east-ern Great Lakes; from the western Ohio Valley south- and westward to the Gulf of Mexico; from Washington southward through California; and in western Ha-waii and near or below normal elsewhere.
The best chance for a major hurri-cane strike will occur from South Caro-lina to New England in early to mid-August. Expect tropical storm threats from Florida to southern New England in early to mid-September.
AUTUMN will be warmer than normal in the Intermountain, Pacific Northwest and Southwest regions, and Alaska and below normal elsewhere. Precipitation will be above normal in the Northeast and Delmarva; from the eastern Great Lakes southwestward to the Tennes-see Valley; in southern Texas and the southern and central High Plains; and in the western Desert Southwest, Pa-cific Southwest, and southern Alaska and near or below normal elsewhere.
TO GET A SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS OF OUR FORECAST FOR LAST WINTER, TURN TO PAGE 204.