Windsor’s Climate Projections

Projecting future climate conditions requires historical weather station data from the City of Windsor as well as an ensemble of global climate models, which provide the best available scientific assessment of how future social and economic conditions will influence the climate system. Future conditions are modeled on future climate “scenarios,” which are assumptions of future atmospheric composition and an understanding of the effects of increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), particulates, and other pollutants. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change.

The climate data gathered for the City of Windsor is based on global climate models and emission scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), drawing from both the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for temperature and precipitation data and the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for extreme weather data. Localized climate projections were retrieved from the Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios Network. A summary table of the climate projections for Windsor can be found in Table 2. Please see Appendix A for more detailed climate projections.

While it is not possible to anticipate future climate changes with absolute certainty, climate change scenarios create plausible representations of future climate conditions. Uncertainty is factored into climate change scenarios, models, and data, and reflects the complex reality of environmental change and the evolving relationship between humans and the planet.